Dem's Deep, Dangerous Divide

The results of the Louisiana primary may have been good news for Barack Obama, but could bode poorly for the Democrats going into the August convention and fall general election:

Nearly complete Louisiana returns showed Obama with 57 percent of the vote, to 36 percent for the former first lady. As in his earlier Southern triumphs in Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina, Obama, a black man, rode a wave of African-American support to victory in Louisiana. Clinton won the white vote overwhelmingly.

Preliminary results of a survey of voters leaving their polling places in Louisiana showed that nearly half of those casting ballots were black. As a group, African-Americans have overwhelmingly favored Obama in earlier primaries, helping him to wins in several Southern states.

Obama was gaining about 80 percent of the black votes statewide, while Clinton was winning 70 percent support among whites, the exit poll showed.

One in seven Democratic voters and about one in 10 Republicans said Hurricane Katrina had caused their families severe hardship from which they have not recovered. There was another indication of the impact the storm had on the state. Early results suggested that northern Louisiana accounted for a larger share of the electorate than in the past, presumably the result of the decline in population in the hurricane-battered New Orleans area.

The effort by the Clinton campaign to identify Obama as "the black candidate" seems to be working.  It looks like the party of identity politics runs the risk of dying by the sword if they allow the Democratic coalition to fracture along racial and ethnic lines and can't put it back together again after a contentious primary.  Imagine what happens if Obama wins a slight majority of elected delegates only to have the nomination thrown to Clinton at the convention once the superdelegates weigh in.  Will African-American voters feel betrayed and punish the Democratic Party establishment by not turning out in big numbers?  All it takes is a decent-sized sliver of African-American voters to stay home in November to critically wound the Democratic nominee.

 
As it presently stands, Obama is poised to have a good February, while Clinton should win the big states (with heavier concentrations of Caucasions and Latinos) in March and April.  The Party of racial tolerance (can you say hypocrisy?) may very well have a tinder-box on the verge of explosion at their convention.  And just think -- this post didn't even touch on the gender divide so evidently apparent in the exit polling up until now.

In the meantime, the GOP will nominate a candidate with cross-over appeal in John McCain and run on winning the war, low taxes and conservative judges.  For their part, the Democrats may very well end up arguing about the fairness of how their nominee was selected and wrestling with bitter ethnic, racial and gender divisions.