Is Giuliani Conceding Iowa?

The decision by the Giuliani campaign to forgo the August straw poll in Iowa is most likely an indicator that the campaign is conceding to the unlikelihood of doing very well in Iowa.  Despite affirmations that Rudy will still compete in the Iowa Caucuses, one would think the campaign would want to display any existing strength with a good showing in the straw poll.  In truth, Rudy has much to lose by risking his front-runner status in a vote that wouldn't provide any delegates anyway. 

 

Rudy's more liberal positions on social issues, particularly abortion, don't play well among rank-and-file Iowa Republican primary voters.  Many Republican voters around the nation are less familiar with this record.  Why bare this weakness for all to see so early in the campaign? My guess is that Rudy's intentions are to downplay the differences he has on social issues for as long as possible, with the hope that his status as a hero of 9-11 will overshadow his record, get him through the early onslaught of primary contests and catapult him to the nomination.  One of the primary objectives for his opponents, principally Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, will be to educate primary voters about Rudy's positions on social issues.  You can bet they will.  Toughness on the Global War on Terror (GWOT) is the key issue that can carry the Republican candidate to victory in the general election.  For the primary, however, who wins the nomination could very well depend upon who is the most "traditional conservative" on social issues with all things being equal on the GWOT.  That's not Rudy.  His best hope is to somehow "shorten" the campaign season (by skipping events like the straw poll) or be the beneficiary of some kind of crisis that keeps the primary race focused away from social issues.

 

Update:  This press release smacks of opportunism on the part of the Romney campaign, but it also has the likely benefit of being grounded in truth. 

Comments

[TexasFred]

He might as well skip it all, Giuliani has NO support from the Conservatives of this nation, and without that support he can't get elected dog catcher... And that's a good thing...

[bjalder26]

Is Giuliani Conceding Iowa? Yes.

[Joe]

The Iowa straw poll is a fraud. Political activities from neighboring states are bussed in by the campaigns. Someone in the state chamber or state tourism commission must have dreamt this charade up to get dupes to pour money into the local economies.

Gore in '08!!!

[Joe]

Oops. I meant "activists."

[Joe]

True, but the straw poll is still an early test of organizational strength.

[Joe]

How'd that work for Phil Graham when George Ryan loaded up the buses with Republicans and sent them to Iowa?

[Joe]

The straw poll isn't determinative by any means, but neither is it a completely useless early indicator. Phil Gramm did do well in the 1995 straw poll. Even so, he tied Dole, who obviously went on to win the nomination. George W. Bush won the straw poll in 1999.