Mood Versus Metrics

Newsweek publishes an article that provides some interesting insights into what Karl Rove saw happening in the campaigns versus the conventional wisdom buttressed by polling data.  I was a little disturbed to read that there was a disconnect between Rove's analysis and that of other leading Republicans, particularly RNC Chair Ken Mehlman, who is a Rove protege of sorts.  I would hope that, given the disparity in expectations, the key honchos would have sat down and tried to flesh out the reasons for the differences and attempted to find a unifying outlook to read the electorate.  This explains my bemusement when I would hear that the confidence coming from the White House, yet I didn't see that confidence expressed by too many center-right pundits on cable news.  I believed that Rove and the RNC were in sync and that Rove's optimism would eventually trickle out to some of the pundits after Rove explained his rationale.  Turns out, Rove was playing from his own deck while many other strategists were seeing what the rest of us saw. 

While I was somewhat dispirited by the polling data, I have to confess that I decided a while back that I would trust Rove until he lost an election.   I thought he earned that after the 2004 election.  I put a great deal of faith in the GOP 72-hour GOTV program because of it's level of sophistication compared to the Dems mish-mash of paid activists.  The final Pew Research poll appeared to justify my confidence.  Despite the loss, I still believe the Republican GOTV effort to be superior.  What did the Republicans in was a lack of demonstrable progress on the war and the sense among many conservatives that the Party had forsaken some first principles.  In this respect, Mehlman's view that the GOTV program can set up the necessary machinery but can't make it run at peak efficiency without properly motivated voters was spot-on. 

Still, it could have been much worse for the Republicans without the GOTV effort.  I think the real lesson learned is that the 2004 GOTV is the high water mark and demonstrates what happens when the Party combines the 72-hour program with a message that motivates the base -- something lacking in 2006.  As keen a strategist as he is, Karl Rove was apparently seduced by the mechanism and raw numbers in lieu of the message.  That may not be completely his fault, as the Party tangled with the Iraq War and was knocked off message by the Foley scandal.   There's every reason to believe that, as long as there is progress on the war over the next two years, the 2008 Republican Presidential nominee can ride a motivating message and the GOTV effort to victory.

Update:  Ed Morrissey offers his thoughts on the Newsweek story here.